Failing to back a People’s Vote could cost Labour 52 marginal seats

An ICM poll commissioned by Represent Us shows that if Labour fails to back a People’s Vote on the Brexit deal, it will lose all of the 35 most marginal seats it holds in England and Wales – mostly in Leave supporting areas.

However, if Labour decides to back a People’s Vote, it will hold those seats and win a further 16 from the Conservatives. In other words, Labour will be at least 51 seats better off in England and Wales if it backs a People’s Vote.

What will surprise many Labour MPs is that the positive impact of Labour supporting a People’s Vote is particularly strong in Leave supporting marginals. Of the 51 seats where its position makes a difference, 38 are in seats where 54% or more of the electorate voted to leave in the 2016 referendum. 13 are in seats which were evenly balanced or supported Remain.

In Scotland, the poll suggests Labour will lose 4 of the 6 most marginal seats it is defending against the SNP whatever it does, but lose one further seat if it fails to support a People’s Vote.

These numbers would not make Labour the largest party either way, but the impact in these 52 seats of this policy choice do make the difference between Labour being able to put together a coalition government and the Conservatives winning any election outright.

The poll was conducted in 107 marginal seats with a majority of less than 3,500 in 2017. 82 of these were in England and Wales and 25 in Scotland. The above figures only apply to these seats. If the results are extrapolated to the whole country, Labour failing to support a People’s Vote could cost it as many as 100 seats, although this number should be treated with caution.

Full Results and Analysis

Represent Us / ICM Poll September 2018 – Results & Analysis

Press coverage

Here’s the Independent coverage of our poll, along with an unconnected poll from the Peoples Vote campaign which further reinforces the result.

Labour could surge towards winning power if they backed new Brexit referendum, polls find

Labour could surge towards winning power if they backed new Brexit referendum, polls find

Both YouGov and ICM released data indicating gains to be made for Jeremy Corbyn’s party by backing a People’s Vote

Source: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html