Our latest ICM poll reveals that Labour risks losing its majorities in key Leave-voting constituencies – if it rejects a People’s Vote.
The poll, conducted in 54 Leave-voting Labour constituencies shows Labour slightly increasing its lead over the Conservatives in these areas, from 7% at the 2017 General Election to 8% now, but only if it supports a People’s Vote when Parliament debates the issue next month. If it fails to support a People’s Vote and just opposes the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, in line with its current plans, its lead falls to 2% and it loses 14 of the seats. If Labour does a u-turn and backs the deal, its lead falls to 4% and it loses 10 of the seats.
Things are even worse for individual Labour MPs who vote against a People’s Vote should the party decide to back it. These Labour MPs are much more likely to be voted out than those Labour MPs who vote with the rest of the party. In fact, 19 out of the 54 would lose their seats by not supporting a People’s Vote.
“The message to Labour is clear,” says Charles Seaford, Co-director of Represent Us, the pro-democracy group which commissioned the poll, “voters want a People’s Vote.”
The survey also discovered that 47% of those polled in these Leave-voting constituencies support a People’s Vote if Parliament rejects the Prime Minister’s deal, compared to 41% who think Britain should leave without a deal, while 12% were ‘don’t knows’ or ‘wouldn’t say’.
This latest poll follows an ICM poll conducted during September, which showed Labour will increase its seats in a General Election by 51 if it backs a People’s Vote – with most of these seats being in Leave-voting areas.
“What struck us was how, even in areas where more than 60% voted Leave, Labour does best by supporting a People’s Vote,” continues Charles Seaford, “It ends up with more votes in these areas than if it opposes the Prime Minister’s deal pure and simple, and it ends up with more votes than if it supports the Prime Minister’s deal unconditionally.”
The poll was conducted in the 54 Labour seats in England and Wales where a majority of voters voted Leave in the 2016 referendum and where the Labour majority was 6,500 or less in 2017. The sample of 1,500 was divided into two equal halves: 750 in the 27 seats where between 50% and 59.9% of voters voted Leave, and 750 in the 27 seats where 60% or more voters voted Leave. Fieldwork took place before the Brexit deal was announced, between 2 November and 13 November.
Full Presentation of findings