Poll indicates 52 marginal seats at stake if Labour does not back a People’s Vote

An ICM poll commissioned by Represent Us shows that if Labour fails to back a People’s Vote on the Brexit deal, it will lose all of the 35 most marginal seats it holds in England and Wales – mostly in Leave supporting areas.

However, if Labour decides to back a People’s Vote, it will hold those seats and win a further 16 from the Conservatives. In other words, Labour will be at least 51 seats better off in England and Wales if it backs a People’s Vote.

What will surprise many Labour MPs is that the positive impact of Labour supporting a People’s Vote is particularly strong in Leave supporting marginals. Of the 51 seats where its position makes a difference, 38 are in seats where 54% or more of the electorate voted to leave in the 2016 referendum. 13 are in seats which were evenly balanced or supported Remain.

In Scotland, the poll suggests Labour will lose 4 of the 6 most marginal seats it is defending against the SNP whatever it does, but lose one further seat if it fails to support a People’s Vote.

These numbers would not make Labour the largest party either way, but the impact in these 52 seats of this policy choice do make the difference between Labour being able to put together a coalition government and the Conservatives winning any election outright.

The poll was conducted in 107 marginal seats with a majority of less than 3,500 in 2017. 82 of these were in England and Wales and 25 in Scotland. The above figures only apply to these seats. If the results are extrapolated to the whole country, Labour failing to support a People’s Vote could cost it as many as 100 seats. This number should be treated with caution though.

Labour could surge towards winning power if they backed new Brexit referendum, polls find

Labour could surge towards winning power if they backed new Brexit referendum, polls find

Both YouGov and ICM released data indicating gains to be made for Jeremy Corbyn’s party by backing a People’s Vote

Source: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html

The importance of Lords amendments 19, 20, 37 & 39

Lords amendment 19 – providing for a meaningful vote – is a vital democratic safeguard. It is needed to stop us sliding into a hard Brexit that only a few want.

Without this amendment, the Prime Minister is at the mercy of the Brexit extremists. Voting for it is a vote for the moderate mainstream majority.

The Government’s alternative amendment does not do this. It means a vote against the deal is a vote for exit without a deal – and is therefore meaningless.

Also important are amendments 20, 37 and 39. These are all needed to ensure Parliament sets the Government’s negotiating mandate – and not the Brexit extremists.

So please ask your MP to vote for these amendments. It could be the last chance.

Follow this link for more information on these four amendments.

Urgent – 5 days to stop Brexit!

The House of Commons will be voting on Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill next Tuesday 12th June.

Four amendments are crucial and will determine whether Parliament has a meaningful vote on the terms – and whether we can stop exit if we end up with a bad deal.

It is vital that we lobby the pro-European Conservative MPs who could potentially rebel against the Government. So if you or anyone you know is in one of these constituencies, please write and ask him or her to support these amendments: this really can make a difference.

Arundel and South Downs
Ashford
Beaconsfield
Bromley and Chislehurst
Broxtowe
Cambridgeshire South
Chelmsford
Cheltenham
Chippenham
Devizes
Dorset North
Eddisbury
Folkestone and Hythe
Hastings and Rye
Loughborough
Meriden
Newbury
Ochil and South Perthshire
Putney
Rushcliffe
Stafford
Sussex Mid
Taunton Deane
Tonbridge and Malling
Totnes
Wantage
Wells
Weston-Super-Mare
Wimbledon
Worthing West

Below this post you will find a standard template but we strongly recommend that you personalise this and do not follow the template too closely. Please invent your own subject header. MPs take far more notice of personalised letters. If you feel able to follow up with a phone call to the office, then that is very useful too.

For more information on the amendments,

Thanks for continuing to push for a true meaningful vote, and fight against a damaging Brexit!

Sue, Richard & Charles
Represent Us

Generic Letter Template

Please vote for Lords amendments ensuring Parliament has control over the exit negotiations

Dear [Your MP name]

I am a constituent of yours – my address is […] – and I am writing about Lords amendments to the European Union Withdrawal Bill.

Four of these seem particularly important to me because they are all about ensuring Parliament has control. These are numbers 19, 20, 37 and 39 on the list produced on 17 May: a new clause to ensure Parliamentary approval of the outcome of the negotiations, an amendment to ensure Parliament sets the mandate for negotiations about our long term relationship (incredibly important because it is not just what happens on day 1 that matters), and two amendments about setting the Exit Day. These are vital to make the mandate amendment effective, and to make Dominic Grieve’s ‘Amendment 7’ effective.

I also think some of the more substantive amendments are important – for example on the Customs Union – but these four amendments are about our democracy, and ensuring the most important national decision for many years is taken in a democratic way. After all, one of the main reasons people voted to leave the EU was to return powers to our own Parliament. And defending democracy is what Parliament is all about!

Yours sincerely,

One week to prevent a damaging Brexit!

The date for the vote on key amendments is 13th December.

So we have one week left to give Parliament the right to reject a damaging Brexit.

There has to be accountability on the most important decision in a generation. That’s what amendment 7 and NC4 are there to provide. They give MPs a chance to look before we leap.

We need EVERYONE to write to their MP about this.

WRITE TO YOUR MP NOW

We have suggested a model letter you can to use to write to your MP – but please do personalise it, and slightly tweak the subject header.

If you have already written – have you had a specific answer to the question “will they vote for Amendment 7 and NC4”?

It is likely that you have had a general reply (this is normal for the first response). Emails are filtered by office staff and do not usually get through to the MP first time.

If this is the case, we suggest you write again with a shorter, more specific question. Some people find they get a better response by telephoning the constituency office to check that their email has been seen. You could pop into the constituency office, leave the MP a paper letter, attend a local surgery this week or even arrange a meeting.

Thanks for continuing to push for a true meaningful vote, and fight against a damaging Brexit!

Sue, Richard & Charles
Represent Us

WRITE TO YOUR MP