Poll Results

Labour would save 25 seats by supporting Parliamentary control of the Brexit process

Summary

Two weeks ago the Prime Minister said that Parliament will have a vote on the Brexit terms negotiated by the Government – but that whatever the result, the UK will leave the European Union. The Labour Party has a choice: will it accept this, or press for an amendment to the Bill about to be laid before Parliament to stipulate that the UK will not leave the European Union until Parliament has approved the terms?

Represent Us commissioned ICM to conduct a poll in Labour held constituencies last weekend to test the different impacts on Labour in a 2017 election of these two positions. It found that there are 25 seats that Labour will lose if it accepts the Prime Minister’s position. However, if Labour voted for an amendment such as NC99 that enables Parliament to keep all options open until it knows the deal, it would keep those seats. Similarly, there are 5 seats that it will lose if it votes for such amendment that it would retain if it accepted the Prime Minister’s position. There are also 68 seats that it will lose either way. In vote share terms, Labour achieves 36% of the vote in Labour held constituencies if it accepts the Prime Minister’s position and 41% of the vote if it votes for an amendment. It had just over 50% of the vote in these constituencies at the General Election.

One explanation of these figures is that Labour has already lost the support of many potential UKIP voters. On the other hand the poll suggests c. 18% of its current supporters voted Lib Dem in 2010 and that just over half of them are likely to go back to the Lib Dems if Labour supports the Government. This group exists in the North of England as well as the South.

Please note that these figures are exaggerated – but the relative impact of calling for remaining as an alternative to a bad deal and accepting that we leave whatever the deal is very clear indeed.

The seat projections are not based on a uniform national swing but on local conditions. For more on the methodology, see below. If you have any questions, please call or email Charles Seaford. charles@represent-us.uk 0780 3086546.

The seats lost

The following are the 25 seats that Labour would lose if it accepts the Prime Minister’s position that the UK will leave the EU whatever the result of Parliament’s vote on the exit terms. That is, Labour would retain these seats if it supported an amendment such as NC99 that placed Parliament in control and to kept all options open.

  • Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Neil Coyle
  • Birmingham, Selly Oak – Steve McCabe
  • Brent North – Barry Gardiner
  • Bristol South – Karin Smyth
  • Cambridge – Daniel Zeichner
  • Cardiff Central – Jo Steves
  • Cardiff South and Penarth – Stephen Doughty
  • Cardiff West – Kevin Brennan
  • Derby South – Margaret Beckett
  • Erith and Thamesmead – Teresa Pearce
  • Exeter – Ben Bradshaw
  • Hammersmith – Andy Slaughter
  • Hampstead and Kilburn – Tulip Siddiq
  • Hornsey and Wood Green – Catherine West
  • Huddersfield – Barry Sheerman
  • Leeds North East – Fabian Hamilton
  • Nottingham South – Lilian Greenwood
  • Sefton Central – Bill Esterson
  • Slough – Fiona Mactaggart
  • Tooting – Rosena Allin-Khan
  • Tynemouth – Alan Campbell
  • Warrington North – Helen Jones
  • West Lancashire – Rosie Cooper
  • Westminster North – Karen Buck
  • York Central – Rachael Maskell

The following are the 5 seats that Labour would lose if it calls for Parliament to have the option of deciding Britain should stay in the EU if the terms on offer are bad, but would retain if it accepts the Prime Minister’s position that the UK will leave the EU whatever the result of Parliament’s vote on the exit terms;

  • Ashfield
  • Don Valley
  • Stoke-On-Trent Central
  • West Bromwich East
  • West Bromwich West

 

More details on the methodology

These numbers are based on a sample of 1,343 voters in Labour held seats (this excludes ‘won’t votes’ and ‘don’t knows’). The seat projections do not assume a uniform national swing but take into account the proportion of remain and leave voters amongst supporters of each party in each constituency and the tendency of each of these groups to switch their votes in response to Labour’s stance.

Represent Us (who commissioned the poll) first estimated the number of leave and remain voters amongst the supporters of each party in each Labour constituency. This was done by taking the national proportions amongst the main parties (as calculated by YouGov – https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/) and applying a local adjustment based on educational qualifications: the higher the proportion of the adult population with no qualifications the higher the leave vote amongst Labour and Lib Dem voters. The figures were further adjusted to ensure that the total leave and remain votes corresponded to the constituency by constituency estimates of total leave and remain votes made by Chris Hanretty – a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia.

The ICM poll then revealed the proportion of voters in each of these groups in all Labour constituencies that said they would change their votes if Labour and the Lib Dems called for a real choice for Parliament, if Labour supported the Government and the Lib Dems called for a real choice for Parliament, and if Labour supported the Government and the Lib Dems called for a referendum. The third scenario was very similar to the second, with a slightly stronger showing for the Lib Dems and worse results for Labour. These proportions were then applied to the current voting intentions amongst each group in each constituency and the result of the election calculated

Note:
The following are the 68 seats that Labour loses under either option.

  • Alyn and Deeside
  • Barrow and Furness
  • Bassetlaw
  • Batley and Spen
  • Birmingham, Edgbaston
  • Birmingham, Erdington
  • Birmingham, Northfield
  • Bishop Auckland
  • Blackpool South
  • Bolton North East
  • Bradford South
  • Brentford and Isleworth
  • Bridgend
  • Bristol East
  • Bury South
  • Chorley
  • City Of Chester
  • Clwyd South
  • Copeland
  • Coventry North West
  • Coventry South
  • Dagenham and Rainham
  • Darlington
  • Delyn
  • Dewsbury
  • Dudley North
  • Ealing Central and Acton
  • Edinburgh South
  • Ellesmere Port and Neston
  • Eltham
  • Enfield North
  • Gedling
  • Great Grimsby
  • Halifax
  • Harrow West
  • Hartlepool
  • Hove
  • Hyndburn
  • Ilford North
  • Lancaster and Fleetwood
  • Luton South
  • Mansfield
  • Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme
  • Newport East
  • Newport West
  • North East Derbyshire
  • Oldham East and Saddleworth
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge
  • Rother Valley
  • Scunthorpe
  • Sedgefield
  • Southampton, Test
  • Stalybridge and Hyde
  • Stockton North
  • Stoke-On-Trent North
  • Stoke-On-Trent South
  • Wakefield
  • Walsall North
  • Walsall South
  • Wirral South
  • Wirral West
  • Wolverhampton North East
  • Wolverhampton South West
  • Workington
  • Worsley and Eccles South
  • Wrexham
  • Ynys Mon